The USA-China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexes

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorAkdag, Saffet
dc.contributor.authorYildirim, Hakan
dc.contributor.authorAlola, Andrew Adewale
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-17T12:25:42Z
dc.date.available2025-03-17T12:25:42Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentTarsus Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractPurpose The recent dynamics of trade policy, especially that is associated with the United States of America (USA) and China, has not only triggered policy adjustments in two economies, it has also implied an uncertainty spillover to other economies across the globe. Consequently, the current study attempts to examine the effect of uncertainties in the USA-China trade policies on stock market indexes. In addition, the cointegration evidence between the USA-China trade policy uncertainty index and of the leading Global South fragile quintet (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) stock market indices is investigated. Design/methodology/approach Mainly, the FMOLS and DOLS Granger causality analysis with cointegration coefficient estimators were employed for the dataset over the monthly data period of March 2003 and July 2019. Findings Accordingly, the study found a long-term relationship between the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index and the stock exchange indexes. In addition, a causal relationship was established from the change in the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index to the change in the stock market indexes of almost all of the examined countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey). In addition, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach further offers evidence of asymmetric relationship among the examined indicators. Originality/value Moreover, this study contributed to the existing literature because it employed the indexes of BIST100, BOVESPA, BSE Sensex 30, IDX Composite and South Africa 40 in a novel approach. Thus, the study posited a useful policy guideline for associated economic uncertainties arising from the trade dispute, such as the case of the world's two largest trading giants or partners (i.e. the USA and China).
dc.identifier.doi10.1108/JEAS-05-2020-0077
dc.identifier.endpage77
dc.identifier.issn1026-4116
dc.identifier.issn2054-6246
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.startpage60
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-05-2020-0077
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13099/1807
dc.identifier.volume39
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000657612900001
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEmerald Group Publishing Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Economic and Administrative Sciences
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20250316
dc.subjectTrade policies
dc.subjectUncertainty
dc.subjectStock index
dc.subjectCausality analysis
dc.subjectCointegration analysis
dc.subjectC22
dc.subjectD22
dc.subjectD80
dc.subjectF13
dc.subjectG23
dc.titleThe USA-China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexes
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Koleksiyon

WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu