The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies

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dc.contributor.authorPehlivanoğlu, Ferhat
dc.contributor.authorAkdağ, Saffet
dc.contributor.authorAlola, Andrew Adewale
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-17T12:22:45Z
dc.date.available2025-03-17T12:22:45Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentTarsus Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe effect and significant of risk in every real life situation is increasingly becoming a pertinent subject in almost every field, thus causing potential adverse effects on both the individual’s propensity to consume and invest. Also, the likelihood of the exposure of the developing countries to geopolitical risks amid experience of economic fragilities as indicated by security indexes has remained an important driver of the global market dynamics. On this note, this study is aimed at examining whether related risks in selected economies (Brazil, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Russia, China, South Africa, Mexico, and Turkey) with geopolitical risks have a significant effect on consumer and producer confidence indexes by employing a monthly data between January 2004 and June 2018. A combination of two panel causality tecniques that examined both the panel and country-specific causality were employed to examine both the panel causal relationship and the country-specific causal relationship. The study found a causality relationship from geopolitical risk index to the consumer and producer confidence index for the overall panel. Also, the results in terms of the individual country showed that causality from the geopolitical risk index to the consumer confidence index is valid for Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico. Meanwhile, the causality from geopolitical risk index to producer confidence index is valid for China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Mexico. The study presented useful financial and securtity policy measure for the examined panel of selected countries. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11135-020-01053-y
dc.identifier.endpage1273
dc.identifier.issn0033-5177
dc.identifier.issue4
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85092777615
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage1261
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01053-y
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13099/1344
dc.identifier.volume55
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
dc.relation.ispartofQuality and Quantity
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_Scopus_20250316
dc.subjectConsumer confidence index
dc.subjectDeveloping countries
dc.subjectGeopolitical risk
dc.subjectGranger causality
dc.subjectProducer confidence index
dc.titleThe causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies
dc.typeArticle

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