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Öğe Causal inference of financial development and institutional quality across the globe(Elsevier, 2023) Uzar, Umut; Eyuboglu, Kemal; Akdag, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleThe world has experienced increased integration of economic activities in the last decades, thus necessitating the unending examination of the responsible factors. In this case, the causal connection between institutional quality and financial development in 102 countries during the period 1990-2016 is examined. Beyond examining this relationship for the entire countries, the countries are further divided into four different income groups (low-income, lower-middle income, upper-middle income, and high-income countries). By employing empirical method that accounts for country-specific factors in the panel, the result of the study demonstrates bidirectional causality between institutional quality and financial development in the whole panel. In terms of country-income groups, the evidence of the study designates that there is two-way causality between institutional quality and financial development in upper-middle income and high-income countries. Moreover, no causality relationship is found in low-income and lower-middle income countries. These results provide policy guide on the effective way of promoting foreign direct investment across the globe.(c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. THis is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/license/by/4.0/)Öğe Comparative benefits of environmental protection expenditures and environmental taxes in driving environmental quality of the European countries(Wiley, 2024) Akdag, Saffet; Yildirim, Hakan; Alola, Andrew AdewaleEnvironmental protection and tax policies are part of the crucial pillars and the evolving aspects of environmental sustainability drive. These policies are increasingly employed to counter the 21st century's global climate problem alongside providing economic relief for the implementing economies. Being on the frontier (i.e., the European Union [EU]) of these policies, the current study examines and compares the impacts of environmental protection expenditures and environmental tax on energy consumption on the ploy to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the panel of EU member countries. With the use of system generalized method of moments and panel causality analyses, the study established the effectiveness of both environmental protection expenditure and environmental tax at improving environmental quality by respectively mitigating GHG emissions by elasticities of similar to 2.08 and similar to 0.18. Importantly, environmental protection expenditure is found to be about two times more effective at mitigating GHG emissions than environmental tax policy, thus providing a novel perspective in the literature. Moreover, energy intensity and Gross Domestic Product help to improve environmental quality by mitigating GHG emissions while population causes more pollutant effects. Additionally, the investigation reveals evidence of Granger causality from environmental protection expenditure to GHG emissions in seven of the EU countries and Granger causality from environmental tax to GHG emissions in 10 European countries. Notably, measurable dimensions of policy guidelines that are relevant for globally and/or nationally defined sustainable development goals are induced from the result of this investigation.Öğe Does economic policy uncertainty drive outbound tourism expenditures in 20 selected destinations?(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2023) Akdağ, Saffet; Kılıç, İlker; Gürlek, Mert; Alola, Andrew AdewaleAcross several destinations, tourism receipts and the aspects of tourism industry has continued to influence the quality of life of the people as well contributing to the national development and sustainable growth. However, the uncertainties and risks experienced in the tourism industry and other economy sectors have remained the drawback of most economies and destinations. As such, the panel of 20 selected destinations is investigated via the common correlated effect method to examine the nexus of economic policy uncertainty and tourism development over the period 2001–2017. Interestingly, the result established a long term relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and outbound tourism expenditures. Specifically, the finding revealed that outbound tourism expenditures are affected negatively by the rise of uncertainty in economic policies, thus suggesting instability of economic-related policy is the bane of tourism development in the destinations. This result stands to have important policy guide for especially for tourism-related activities in the panel of 20 selected countries. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.Öğe Evaluating the Hierarchical Contagion of Economic Policy Uncertainty among the Leading Developed and Developing Economies(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2023) Alkan, Serkan; Akdağ, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleAn array of global events, including the global financial crisis, natural disasters, and the recent coronavirus pandemic, have consistently shown the vulnerability of global systems and humans to externally undesirable contagions. In order to further provide alternative approaches to information valuation, this study utilized the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of 21 leading developed and developing economies (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America) over the period January 1997 to May 2021. The information theory reveals the hierarchy of degrees of randomness in the EPU indices; it shows the information flow among the EPU indices through the mutual information metric and the graphical illustration of the information flows using network theory. Importantly, the Entropy measures indicate higher predictability of the Netherlands and Ireland’s EPU indices, suggesting that they have less randomness than other indices. Contrarily, Greece and the United Kingdom share the lowest predictability of the EPU indices. Moreover, the complex networks analysis shows that the EPU indices is generally shaped by geographic location. In order of significance, the United States of America’s EPU index exhibits the strongest correlation with other countries’ EPU indices and followed by the EPU indices of France, the United Kingdom (UK), and Germany. In general, the result of the investigation communicates relevant policy measures that potentially ameliorate shocks from external contagions. © 2023 by the authors.Öğe Examining the Existence of Speculative Bubbles in Oil and Natural Gas Prices(CRC Press, 2024) Yildirim, Hakan; Eyüboğlu, Kemal; Akdağ, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleAlthough most energ-dependent countries have consistently aimed at implementing economic diversification policy, the approach is not as easy as it is always suggested. İn addition, the energy market has in recent time been significantly driven by the environmental sustainability and sustainable growth campaign of United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) and other environmental-oriented intergovermental agencies such as the United Nations Framework Convention in Climate Change (UNFCCC) (United Nations 2020, UNFCCC 2020). While the global energy outlook by 2050 is attributed to the driving force of the global energy transition, the manner of energy utilization across the main sectors (primary energy consumption by end-use sectors) of the economy will play a significant role (British Petroleum 2021). In specific, the British Petroleum (2021) report noted that the industrial sector accounted for the largest sectoral (45%) of global energy utilization in 2018, while residential and commercial building, transportation, and the non-combusted use of fuels respectively accounted for 29%, 21%, and 5% of global energy use in the same year. © 2024 Andrew Adewale Alola, Festus Victor Bekun and Uju Violet Alola.Öğe Is there a price bubble in the exchange rates of the developing countries? The case of BRICS and Turkey(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2022) Yildirim, Hakan; Akdag, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewalePurposeThe last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other sources of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to examine the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and the Republic of Turkey.Design/methodology/approachGiven this perceived global dynamics, the current study examined the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey's exchange rate dynamics by using the United States (US) monthly dollar exchange rate data between January 2002 and August 2019. The price bubble which is expressed as exceeding the real value of assets' prices which is observably caused by speculative movements is investigated by using the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approaches.FindingsAccordingly, the GSADF test results opined that there are price bubbles in the dollar exchange rate of other countries except for the United States Dollar (USD)/Indian Rupee (INR) exchange rate. As the related countries are classified as developing countries in terms of their structure, they are also expectedly the subject of speculative exchange rate movements. Speculative movements in exchange rates may cause serious problems in national economies.Originality/valueThus, the current study provides a policy framework to the BRICS countries and the Republic of Turkey.Öğe Navigating carbon neutrality pathway beyond energy and economic agents: the influence of media liberty across the OECD countries(Iop Publishing Ltd, 2025) Uzar, Umut; Eyuboglu, Kemal; Alola, Andrew AdewalePress freedom is a fundamental aspect of democratic societies, playing a critical role in shaping public discourse, fostering transparency, and holding institutions accountable. Furthermore, its impact extends beyond political and social realms to encompass environmental sustainability, particularly in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. While extensive research has been conducted on the economic, social, and institutional factors that influence environmental outcomes, the role of press freedom in shaping ecological footprint remains underexplored. However, this study aims to address this gap by examining the relationship between press freedom and ecological footprint across 36 OECD countries from 2013 to 2022. Utilizing a system generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis and controlling for economic growth, trade openness, and energy consumption, this research reveals significant findings. Specifically, it demonstrates that press freedom serves as a catalyst for reducing ecological footprint, presenting OECD countries with a unique opportunity for environmental gains and potentially achieving carbon neutrality. In contrast, we find indicators such as economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness have negative impact on environmental quality. Overall, this study underscores the importance of promoting press freedom as a key strategy for advancing environmental sustainability and calls for concerted efforts to harness its potential for mitigating ecological footprint in OECD countries and beyond.Öğe New emerging market economies and the roles of energy use, financial development and socioeconomic aspects(Springer India, 2024) Eyuboglu, Sinem; Uzar, Umut; Alola, Andrew AdewaleIn recent years, emerging market economies have consistently achieved growth rates above the world average. In this study, the nexus among economic growth, energy consumption, industrialization, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization were tested over the period 1995-2019 for selected emerging countries (Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico and Poland). The main findings of this study are as follows: The results showed that energy consumption, industrialization, and financial development positively affected economic growth for the entire panel. While trade openness negatively affected economic growth, urbanization was statistically insignificant. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test results indicate bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Economic growth and energy consumption are the causes of industrialization. Thus, it can be concluded that a low-cost energy supply will help maintain economic performance with incentive policies such as tax deductions and credits provided for producers in the examined countries.Öğe The causal nexus between bank indices and geopolitical risk: bootstrap causality analysis under horizontal sector dependence(Springer India, 2023) Yildirim, Hakan; Sahin, Eyyup Ensari; Akdag, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleAs the global economy thrives and pushes for sustainable growth, there are also a plethora of non-economic challenges arising from the respective dimensions of insecurity and geopolitical tensions such as inter- and intra-country conflicts. Geopolitical risk mostly arises from security tensions, war, and terrorist incidents, which hamper peaceful inter-country and regional cooperation, thus endangering state institutions such as financial institutions. Given this observation, the current study examines the relationship between the geopolitical risk index and bank indices by employing the bootstrap panel causality approach over a monthly period from September 2003 to December 2018. In this case, the causality analysis of the geopolitical risk index and bank indices for six (6) countries (China, Indonesia, Israel, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey) was performed. Importantly, the investigation found causality only from the geopolitical risk index to bank indices in Turkey and Israel. Given the statistical evidence from the study, we offer related policy recommendations, especially for the examined countries.Öğe The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2021) Pehlivanoğlu, Ferhat; Akdağ, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleThe effect and significant of risk in every real life situation is increasingly becoming a pertinent subject in almost every field, thus causing potential adverse effects on both the individual’s propensity to consume and invest. Also, the likelihood of the exposure of the developing countries to geopolitical risks amid experience of economic fragilities as indicated by security indexes has remained an important driver of the global market dynamics. On this note, this study is aimed at examining whether related risks in selected economies (Brazil, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Russia, China, South Africa, Mexico, and Turkey) with geopolitical risks have a significant effect on consumer and producer confidence indexes by employing a monthly data between January 2004 and June 2018. A combination of two panel causality tecniques that examined both the panel and country-specific causality were employed to examine both the panel causal relationship and the country-specific causal relationship. The study found a causality relationship from geopolitical risk index to the consumer and producer confidence index for the overall panel. Also, the results in terms of the individual country showed that causality from the geopolitical risk index to the consumer confidence index is valid for Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico. Meanwhile, the causality from geopolitical risk index to producer confidence index is valid for China, Indonesia, South Korea, and Mexico. The study presented useful financial and securtity policy measure for the examined panel of selected countries. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.Öğe The causal trend of energy intensity and urbanization in emerging countries(Springer Heidelberg, 2022) Eyyuboglu, Kemal; Akdag, Saffet; Yildirim, Hakan; Alola, Andrew AdewaleDue to economic activities intensification associated with the developing countries, the relationship between population density and energy density in urban areas becomes an important issue in the energy studies. In this study, the relationship between energy intensity and urbanization is examined in 23 developing countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Uruguay) over the period 1990-2015. The cointegration and causality relationships between variables are examined using Westerlund (2007) cointegration and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger causality tests. The cointegration test results revealed that there is no long-term relationship between variables. However, the Granger causality test results showed that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between energy density and urbanization, energy density and economic growth, economic growth and energy density in the short-term. Thus, the result posit a policy direction that could guide the governments of the respective economies especially on achieving a sustainable environment to avoid feasible consequence of trade-off between energy and population growth.Öğe The role of economic freedom and clean energy in environmental sustainability: implication for the G-20 economies(Springer Heidelberg, 2022) Alola, Andrew Adewale; Alola, Uju Violet; Akdag, Saffet; Yildirim, HakanWith the increasing challenge of attaining sustainable balance in socioeconomic-ecosystem activities, the aspects of the global goals are continously being harnesed in order to ensure a sustainable interaction. As an alliance of the United Nations, the G-20 member countries have not only committed to attaining the Sustainable Development Goals 2030, the alliance body has further fostered frameworks that are targeted at advancing global economic and environmental sustainability. Within this context, the current study examined the environmental sustainability effects arising from the economic freedom prowess in the panel of the G-20 economies over the period 2000-2016. Among the sparse studies, the study employed the indices of economic freedom: freedom to trade internationally, regulation, sound money, legal framework, and property right and alongside the real income and renewable energy consumption as explanatory indicators. With the result of the difference- and two-step system GMM (generalized method of moments), the legal system and property right, sound money, freedom to international trade, and regulatory efficiency are detrimental to the panel countries' environmental quality. Although this is likely to be untrue for countries that have advanced their climate actions and especially the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030, it suggests a dearth in the SDGs achievement among the developing and emerging economies. Moreover, it probably shows the depth of traditional or business-as-usual practices (such as the lack of sustainable economic and environmental practices) and the socioeconomic system that are obtainable in most of the developing and emerging economies. Thus, the study put forward tangible policies that are essential for governance and toward attaining desirable country-specific SDGs.Öğe The USA-China trade policy uncertainty and inference for the major global south indexes(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2023) Akdag, Saffet; Yildirim, Hakan; Alola, Andrew AdewalePurpose The recent dynamics of trade policy, especially that is associated with the United States of America (USA) and China, has not only triggered policy adjustments in two economies, it has also implied an uncertainty spillover to other economies across the globe. Consequently, the current study attempts to examine the effect of uncertainties in the USA-China trade policies on stock market indexes. In addition, the cointegration evidence between the USA-China trade policy uncertainty index and of the leading Global South fragile quintet (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) stock market indices is investigated. Design/methodology/approach Mainly, the FMOLS and DOLS Granger causality analysis with cointegration coefficient estimators were employed for the dataset over the monthly data period of March 2003 and July 2019. Findings Accordingly, the study found a long-term relationship between the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index and the stock exchange indexes. In addition, a causal relationship was established from the change in the USA-China Trade Policy Uncertainty index to the change in the stock market indexes of almost all of the examined countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey). In addition, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach further offers evidence of asymmetric relationship among the examined indicators. Originality/value Moreover, this study contributed to the existing literature because it employed the indexes of BIST100, BOVESPA, BSE Sensex 30, IDX Composite and South Africa 40 in a novel approach. Thus, the study posited a useful policy guideline for associated economic uncertainties arising from the trade dispute, such as the case of the world's two largest trading giants or partners (i.e. the USA and China).Öğe The volatility spillover effects among risk appetite indexes: insight from the VIX and the rise(Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Akdag, Saffet; Iskenderoglu, Omer; Alola, Andrew AdewaleThis study aims to test the volatility spillover effects among the global risk appetite, the VIX (also known as the fear index) and the RISE index (known as the indicator of investor risk appetite index in Turkey). A temporary or permanent causality Granger and Breitung Candelon (Breitung and Candelon in J Econom 132(2):363-378, 2006) frequency domain causality analyses were performed by using the weekly dataset spanning from January 2010 to December 2018. The results obtained from the study reveals a unilateral causal relationship running from the VIX toward the RISE index. This causality inference is also observed separately in the short-, medium- and the long-run. Consequently, the investigation found that there is a permanent causal relationship running from the VIX toward the RISE index. These results also indicate the existence of the volatility spillover effect among the risk appetite indexes. Consequently, the current study offers significant policy directives from the side of the government and other stakeholders especially that are targeted at mitigating fear factors in the economy.Öğe Toward a sustainable economic development in the EU member states: The role of energy efficiency-intensity and renewable energy(Wiley-Hindawi, 2021) Pehlivanoglu, Ferhat; Kocbulut, Ozgur; Akdag, Saffet; Alola, Andrew AdewaleWhile aiming to reach its 20% energy efficiency target for 2020 and subsequently reaching at least 32.5% by 2030, the European Union (EU) countries are consistently encouraged to implement the bloc's energy efficiency directives of 2012/27/EU and the (EU) 2018/2002. Without sacrificing existing energy standards and environmental quality, the EU has consistently favored behavioral and economic changes that are capable of increasing energy efficiency. In view of this motivation, this study examines the impact of energy efficiency on economic growth in 21 EU member countries over the 1995-2016 period. Importantly, the study examined both the regional and country-specific impacts of energy intensity, energy dependency, and renewable energy utilization on economic expansion. With a respective elasticity of 0.94, 0.17, and 0.01 by the MG (Mean Group) estimator, we found that energy efficiency, renewable energy utilization, and energy dependency positively trigger economic expansion in the region. This result does not only provide a desirable economic outlook for the EU countries, the observation further offers a positive feedback on the bloc's drive for environmental sustainability. The empirical results obtained from panel causality test indicate that there is a bilateral Granger causality from economic growth to energy efficiency, energy intensity, and renewable energy. Moreover, the result provides that energy efficiency, energy intensity, energy dependency, and renewable energy utilization exhibits a different degree of economic impact across the sections of examined EU countries. In general, the study captures a policy reflection of the economic and environmental sustainability status and outlook of the EU countries.
